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The Wild Card Round schedule is set, and Sunday’s slate should be attractive to bettors because of two games in particular. Two of Sunday’s games stand out to me in particular: Baltimore vs. Tennessee and Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh. I will explain why I cannot believe that NFL odds are favoring the Ravens and why I think the Browns will surprise the sundry skeptics.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, January 10, 2020 – 1:05 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Derrick Henry vs. Baltimore’s Run Defense
Baltimore has routinely proven vulnerable against teams that like to run the ball. Since November, Indianapolis and Tennessee ran for over five YPC against the Raven defense. Likewise, one-dimensional New England accrued 173 rushing yards on 39 attempts and Cleveland ran for 138 yards on 28 attempts.
Indianapolis only scored 10 points because it passed a lot with a lower-quality quarterback who ranks in the bottom half in passer rating. The Patriots, Titans, and Browns all came very close to beating Baltimore -- if they did not beat Baltimore — largely because they succeeded on the ground.
Tennessee has the NFL’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry. He ran for 2,027 yards in the regular season. Henry is a high-volume running back whose physicality makes him difficult to bring down. His smooth cut-back ability helps him achieve a lot of big plays.
Ryan Tannehill
When you add in the fourth-best quarterback in terms of passer rating, Ryan Tannehill, then Tennessee’s offense becomes a two-dimensional force. Baltimore’s pass defense ranks sixth in terms of yardage allowed. However, the Ravens’ ranking is helped by the number of low-quality quarterbacks whom they have faced.
Of Baltimore’s last six opposing quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield ranked highest — 15th — in passer rating followed by Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger. So Ryan Tannehill will present a strong and sudden upgrade in competition.
The Raven secondary has numerous players on Injured Reserve. This has been a progressively undermanned unit that Tennessee with Tannehill and ascending deep threat AJ Brown have the weaponry to exploit.
Lamar Jackson
I like Tennessee because Baltimore is not built to exploit the Titans’ defensive weakness. Teams like Houston and Green Bay give Tennessee trouble when they have prolific passers like Deshaun Watson, who ranks second in passer rating, and MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers.
Lamar Jackson is a run-first quarterback and not a prolific passer. His preference to run helps explain why he only ranks 22nd in yards, just ahead of New England’s Cam Newton. The metrics attest to Jackson’s lack of quality as a passer.
He ranks #24 in true completion percentage (completion percentage that overlooks drops and unpressured throwaways) and 28th in accuracy rating. In a game where offenses will have plenty of success, Jackson’s inability to keep pace with Tannehill’s passing prowess will keep Baltimore from winning this game.
The Total
Why don’t I simply take the over on the betting sites? Both teams love to run the ball and they run the ball well. Baltimore owns a plethora of solid running backs while Tennessee features King Henry. So the clock will be rolling.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, January 10, 2020 - 8:15 PM ET at Heinz Field
Misconceptions
Pittsburgh seems to be a popular play for two reasons. Last week, Cleveland barely beat a Steeler squad that rested many starters because it already clinched a playoff spot. When the Browns last played Pittsburgh “for real,” Pittsburgh throttled the Browns 38-7.
I think that these two reasons are bad reasons. While the Steelers missed some players, the Browns were also disadvantaged. Besides missing top corner Denzel Ward, the Browns only got to practice twice. They practiced once with the wide receivers. Mentally, Pittsburgh got to play loose because it already made the playoffs while Cleveland had to play tight and under pressure.
The Browns play terribly under the burden of hype and expectation. Their last, terrible season provides proof of this, but now they are being counted out. Regarding the second reason, that game was in October. Cleveland was a different team back then.
Defensively, the Browns did not know how to travel. They repeatedly allowed opposing offenses to surpass their respective scoring average when they hosted the Browns. Also, at that time, quarterback Baker Mayfield was not being used properly.
The Browns made that mistake again in the rematch against the Steelers as part of their rather vanilla game-plan in which they wanted to hide some things from Pittsburgh as much as possible. However, Mayfield’s passer rating was highest — 102.1 — in December because the Browns have had him execute more RPOs, play-actions, and rollouts. When Mayfield does have to stand in his pocket, he’s more often able to hit his first read.
Steeler Offense
In December, the Steelers averaged 19.2 points per game. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger played one good half of football. Opposing defensive backs compelled him to throw deep by sitting on his wide receivers’ shorter routes
The running game was largely non-existent behind Pittsburgh’s run-blocking. While they did play some good defenses, they also struggled even against the Bengals. So it’s no objection to cite Cleveland’s lower-ranked defense.
Brown Offense vs. Steeler Defense
Pittsburgh’s run defense is vulnerable against stronger ground games. The Steelers benefitted from facing a Raven squad without Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson, although Baltimore still ran for 129 yards on 4.6 YPC.
They struggle to stop teams that want to run the ball. Cincinnati, for example, was run-first without its starting or backup quarterbacks and accrued 152 rushing yards on 41 carries in its win.
Cleveland has a strong running back duo led by Nick Chubb, the seventh-leading rusher, and Kareem Hunt. With an intelligently utilized Mayfield, Cleveland’s offense will do two things well that Pittsburgh’s wont: run and pass the ball.
The Verdict
Tennessee will cover the spread because it enjoys an edge in passing that Baltimore’s defense lacks the quality and health to overcome. Cleveland, too, is worth investing in for its multi-dimensional advantage on offense.
For your NFL Picks, be sure to parlay both underdogs at one of the sportsbooks.
NFL Pick:
Titans +3.5 at -110 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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The real games start this weekend. My NFL parlay picks produced two big winners during the regular season, and there were several other close calls (or bad beats).
The goal is to profit anytime you set forth in NFL betting, and nothing changes with the 2021 NFL playoffs arriving on Saturday.
In fact, the only difference is the amount of NFL games you can bet on. Things condense quite a bit, but the six games during the first round are more than you’re accustomed to.
I’ll take what I can get, and for as long as it makes sense, I’ll keep handing out parlay picks for the 2021 NFL playoffs. If you’re looking to string together some bets to increase your earning potential, consider my favorite parlay picks for the 2021 Wild Card round.
Washington Football Team – Fewest Points Scored (+250)
There are some 2021 Wild Card upset picks to consider this week, but Washington probably won’t be one of them.
The Washington Football Team could barely get past an Eagles team that had no interest in winning. Their 25th-ranked scoring offense figures to have trouble keeping up with the Buccaneers, too, while there is word a less than 100% Alex Smith might not even be able to play the whole game.
Ron Rivera says Washington has to consider rotating QBs Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke against Tampa. “It’s something we seriously have to look at”
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) January 5, 2021Washington’s defense could try to limit Tom Brady and keep this game close, but that’s their best-case scenario. I don’t see them putting up many points in this spot, while a talented Bucs defense could be on a mission to send a message in this game.
This is a risky one with 11 other teams potentially vying for the “top spot,” but in reality, the only other threats figure to be the Rams and Bears. Both have more offensive potential, so I love Washington to score the fewest points in the Wild Card round.
This is another bet where logic points to the favorite, and there just aren’t that many other options you would feel good about.
Printable Nfl Parlay Cards
Henry is the mother of all battering rams, he has a good history of rushing success in this exact matchup, and he’s coming in hot after putting up 250 rushing yards last week.
Heck, some people even think he’s the league MVP.
2,000 Rush Yards, 15 TD (single season, NFL history):
Davis, 1998: 2,008 yds, 21 TD
Henry, 2020: 2,027 yds, 17 TD
'Derrick Henry is the MVP. And if he's not it's time for us to change the name of this award to the QB award. This is the hardest thing you can do.' — @BMarshallpic.twitter.com/3ewYWgf4Y6
Recent bias might lead some to consider Jonathan Taylor here, while guys like J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb could be in the mix. But is it likely the Ravens shut Henry down? No.
Is it reasonable to think he won’t be the top rusher in the first round of the playoffs? Not really.
Indianapolis Colts (+7) -115
The Buffalo Bills are being hyped up as the potential kryptonite for the Kansas City Chiefs. Maybe so, but they have to get past a pretty good Colts team first.
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Indianapolis benefits from the league’s playoff expansion, and if there wasn’t a 7th team in, they would be at home at 11-5 right now.
The Colts know they’re lucky to be here, but they also have a talented running back, a veteran quarterback, and a pretty good defense. You don’t think this totally worthy and viable playoff threat will take issue with being a full touchdown underdog?
I know, Philip Rivers has a rough history in the playoffs. However, it’s not just about him. Indy has the coaching, balance, and defensive bite to be a real problem for Buffalo.
They’re among my safest 2021 Wild Card bets, and you can keep them as part of your Wild Card NFL parlay.
This game should be ugly, folks. That’s my belief even if Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp are back in time for this one, but if not, the Rams will really be struggling on offense.
Both teams have a very good defense, both teams play a slower brand of football, and their previous two meetings this year fell below this total.
Free Printable Football Parlay Cards
This is a really low game total, and it wouldn’t take much to top it. However, the Rams don’t have a very threatening offense right now, both defenses are nasty, and neither offense is very explosive these days.
Would you be shocked to learn that the Over was 4-12 for the Rams and 7-9 for the Seahawks in 2020? Yeah, me neither. Bet the Under and look away when this one plays.
It’s time for some redemption. Yes, I think this game is wild, and no, I don’t think the Ravens stifle Derrick Henry.
But the Ravens are going to find a way to win this game.
Tennessee is 2-0 in their last two meetings with Baltimore, but there is revenge to be had after the Titans derailed a majestic 14-2 campaign a year ago. That and the last meeting went into overtime.
Oh, and this Titans defense is absolute garbage.
Tennessee’s offense is awesome, and Baltimore will have a heck of a time trying to stop it, but I think the Ravens keep pace and hold on for a big win. Lamar Jackson is on fire these days, and the Ravens (five straight wins) are one of the hottest teams in football.
Baltimore has the coaching and defensive edge here. With a dynamic offense capable of matching wits with Tennessee, I think that edge nudges the Ravens into round two.
As if betting on Washington to score the fewest points – or any of these bets – weren’t dicey enough, I’ll up the ante and say the Browns are going to upset the Steelers.
They were in my 2021 Wild Card NFL upset picks before news broke about their COVID-19 situation, and I’m not changing my stance.
The NFL gods are trying to get in the way of Cleveland’s amazing season, of course, and a recent run-in with COVID-19 implications will get everyone off of the Browns.
Browns COVID outbreak continues: HC Kevin Stefanski, two other coaches and two players have COVID issues, sources tell ESPN. Browns are closing their facility.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2021To be fair, the Browns will be without their head coach and arguably their best offensive lineman. Those are not small absences.
But Cleveland has its best team in probably two decades. They can run the football on anyone, Myles Garrett spearheads a better than advertised defense, and Baker Mayfield can do major damage when he has time.
More than betting on the Browns, however, I’m just not betting on the Steelers.
Pittsburgh was looking pretty fraudulent already during their 11-0 run to start the year, but since then, they’ve won exactly one game. And even that required a collapse by the Colts!
I don’t trust the Steelers at all. They’re not as good as their record suggests, their once stellar defense is down key bodies, and Ben Roethlisberger has shown his age down the stretch.
Top 2021 Wild Card NFL Parlay Bet
- Washington Football Team – Fewest Points Scored (+250)
- Most Rushing Yards – Derrick Henry (-175)
- Indianapolis Colts (+7) -115
- Rams vs. Seahawks Under 42.5 (-110)
- Baltimore Ravens to Win (-165)
- Cleveland Browns to Win (+220)
Sometimes you get a feeling about games, and/or the prices look too nice. And when it’s there for the taking, you just need to go for it.
Nfl Parlay Cards Week 1
Go for it, I shall.
The 2021 NFL Wild Card round could be a lot of fun, as this ambitious set of NFL parlay picks attempts to bring back a whopping $33,660.37 for every $100 wagered at Bovada.
Is it risky? Well, yeah.
Nfl Parlay Cards Dover Downs
Honestly, just betting on the Browns to win or taking Washington to score the fewest points is snatching up plenty of value. And understandably so, this is the part where I remind you that you can go against these parlay picks, cut them down to a more comfortable size, or just bet on them individually.
That said, this is an awesome parlay, full of Wild Card NFL bets I happen to love. Whatever combination you go with is up to you, but if you roll with the whole lot at Bovada, the upside is insane.
Nfl Parlay Cards This Week
If you want to be on the NFL this week, make sure you shop around. Hit up the best NFL betting sites before placing any bets.